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IFANS FOCUS COVID-19, Global Leadership, and the U.S.-China Relations 민정훈 미주연구부 부교수 발행일 2020-05-07 조회수 3369
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I. COVID-19 and Global Leadership
II. COVID-19 and the U.S.-China Relations 
Ⅲ. Implications


Few expected that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) would tear through the world when it was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. And as tragic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic rises around the world, so do questions about the U.S. global leadership. With the Trump administration’s misplaced efforts exposing a global leadership vacuum, China seems to be poised to roll out its Health Silk Road as part of efforts to advance diplomatic and national security interests by filling the vacuum left by Washington after bringing domestic situations largely under control. Many observers around the world are discussing the possibility of the COVID-19 pandemic reshaping the current global order. This article aims at exploring the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the remaking of global leadership and the outlook for the U.S.-China relations.


I. COVID-19 and Global Leadership

Will the rapid spread of the COVID-19 trigger the demise of the U.S. global leadership? Will China successfully position itself as a global leader filling the vacuum created by Washington? And will the COVID-19 crisis be a critical momentum to reshape the current global order?

To answer these questions, it would be useful to utilize the idea that the status of the U.S. as a global leader over the past several decades has been built not just on wealth and power but also, and just as important, on the legitimacy that flows from its domestic governance, provision of global public goods, and ability and willingness to muster and coordinate a global response to crises. Using the criteria that U.S. global supremacy stems from its superior hard and soft power, I will examine whether China is capable of  emerging and replacing the U.S. as a global leader.

 The results of the analysis will show that China has not yet been equipped with hard and soft power assets necessary to surpass the U.S. as a global leader. In addition, China’s “Health Silk Road”is unlikely to be a momentum that would place itself at the center of global power and influence.


1. Global Leadership: Hard Power

The U.S. has maintained military and economic superiority over China. The rapid rise of China, however, has been narrowing such gap over the past few years. The U.S. defense spending in 2018 was $732 billion, far exceeding that of China which spent a total of $261 billion. However,  China’s enormous investments into modernizing its military have been gradually overshadowing the asymmetric advantage that the U.S. military possesses. For instance, in terms of naval power, China used to hold a quantitative advantage while the U.S. enjoyed a qualitative advantage. But China is now capable of building advanced aircraft carriers at a rapid pace, which shows the possibility that the U.S. could lose its comparative advantage. With this perception, the U.S. Department of Defense is making vigorous efforts on multiple fronts at retaining its asymmetrical military advantages over China while strengthening security cooperation with its allies and partners. And it is anticipated that military tensions between the U.S. and China are likely to escalate in the coming years, especially in the regions where their vital interests are at stake, such as the South China Sea. 

China’s rapid economic growth also seems to affect the current dynamics between the two countries. The statistics show that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U.S. in 2018 was $20.5 trillion while China’s GDP was worth $13.6 trillion. The GDP per capita in the U.S. was recorded at $62,641 in 2018, also far exceeding that of China worth $9,770. As China is speeding its way to catch up with the U.S., however, the economic gap between them is likely to get smaller over time. 

Will the COVID-19 pandemic ravaging the global economy dethrone the U.S. from the world’s economic leader, and will it be an opportunity for China to emerge as a global economic leader in a post-COVID-19 world?

The current crisis has reinforced the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the world economy. It remains the world’s reserve currency and is still considered a relatively safe asset in times of economic uncertainty. The rush to safety amid the global economic crisis prompted by the pandemic has strengthened it, and foreign demand for dollars will make it easier for the United States to borrow.

Such perception is aided by the fact that all the alternatives to the dollar still look worse. The pandemic raised fears of a new euro crisis. And investors are concerned about the possibility that the Chinese government could put restrictions to get their money out of the country in the pandemic crisis. Other touted alternatives to the dollar — gold, bitcoin — have major drawbacks.

Moreover, considering that the Chinese economy has also been affected by the pandemic and it is significantly interrelated with other economies such as the U.S. and European economies,  it would be hard for China to become the sole savior of the global economy during the pandemic crisis. The 12 countries hardest hit by the virus account for about 40 percent of China’s exports. Many of these countries are also China’s top suppliers of intermediate goods. Accordingly, although there could be a partial uptick on the supply side as Chinese factories reopen, China’s economy will not be able to make economic recovery and growth by itself before its major economic counterparts begin to recover.

 In sum, as long as the U.S. dollar maintains its status as the global currency, the COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to mark an economic reordering and significantly affect the position of the U.S. as the global leader.


2. Global Leadership: Soft Power

As mentioned above, soft power assets buttressing the legitimacy of global leadership consist of “superior domestic governance, provision of global public goods, and ability and willingness to muster and coordinate a global response to crises.”Is China equipped with such assets to replace the U.S. as the global leader in the process of coping with the COVID-19 challenges?

 As the spread of the virus has been under control throughout the country, China is seeking to expand its global influence through the Health Silk Road. Unlike China’s expectation, however, controversies over the transparency and trustworthiness of China’s domestic governance, quality problems of Chinese medical supplies sent to other countries, and Beijing’s intention to take advantage of the COVID-19 crisis to show off the superiority of its political system, are spreading negative perceptions on China across the world. This shows that there is still a long way to go before China exercises its global influence through its soft power.

Regarding the superior domestic governance, China’s leaders have declared the coronavirus outbreak largely under control within its borders, underscoring they responded to the spread of the virus swiftly and efficiently based on its effective domestic governance. But Beijing is facing the international community’s accusations of a cover-up of the full extent of its coronavirus epidemic and lack of transparency. Many countries are urging China  to be as transparent as possible about the coronavirus outbreak, and to provide trustworthy information. And China has not shown how its authoritarian model of governance could be  compatible with the values and principles that democratic models possess around the world. Therefore, it would not be easy for China to galvanize international support for its domestic governance.

With regard to the provision of global public goods, China has been pushing forward with its Health Silk Road initiative and trying to lead international cooperation since March. The Chinese government sent medical supplies, such as respirators, face masks, and  anti-contamination clothing, to the countries suffering from the spread of the virus. The General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China reported that China exported medical supplies worth 10.2 billion yuan (about 1.43 billion U.S. dollars) as of March 1. However, a lot of governments have rejected Chinese-made supplies, calling them below standard or defective. For instance, the Netherlands recalled about 1.3million defective Chinese face masks delivered in March. In addition, authorities in Spain, the Czech Republic, Turkey, and  the Philippines, filed complaints against faulty Chinese-made equipment. With controversies over the quality of Chinese-made medical supplies gaining much attention, the international community is casting doubt on China’s capability as a major provider of global public goods.

Regarding the ability and willingness to muster and coordinate a global response to crises, the pandemic could have been a good chance for China to prove its ability and will to orchestrate global responses while Washington could not show  responsible global leadership. As controversies emerged in the process of implementing the Health Silk Road, however, China had to face antipathy from the recipient countries. When Western countries received medical supplies from China, they had to express their gratitude to the supplier in any way. Such a situation made the recipients uncomfortable and contributed to generating negative perceptions on China. In addition, the controversy over racial discrimination in  mainland China made the situation worse. Many Africans in China insisted that they faced coronavirus discrimination and, as a result, hostilities toward China spread quickly in African countries. Some even contended that China should offer debt forgiveness to African countries because their economy was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, which, they argued, was originated in Wuhan, China.

To sum up, the results of the analysis on China’s hard and soft power capabilities show that it is unlikely that China will replace the U.S. as the global leader in a post-COVID-19 world. Rather, it would be more appropriate to say that both the U.S. and China are struggling with combating the COVID-19 in their own ways. And it is anticipated that they will continue to have their war of words over who should be held accountable for the global spread of the virus.


II. COVID-19 and the U.S.-China Relations 

As examined above, it is expected that the U.S. is going to sustain its global leadership in the post COVID-19 world. Then, how will the COVID-19 pandemic affect world politics and the U.S.-China relations in the coming years? It appears that the pandemic will accelerate the promotion and spread of President Trump’s “America First”approach, which explicitly prioritizes national interests  over international cooperation. And this will intensify the U.S-China rivalry.  

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the U.S. has gone through a series of mind-boggling events including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the 2008 financial crisis. Such events invoked a perception of American decline in the world, and the American people have sent their support for focusing more on domestic issues and reformulating foreign policy to restore their national strength. Such political consideration has been reflected in both the Obama administration’s offshore balancing strategy, and the Trump administration’s America first foreign policy.

The Trump administration’s “America First”approach, which is featured by a tendency to put American interests first, pessimistic view on the role of the ‘world’s policeman,’preference for bilateralism, stunted international cooperation, and dissonance among great powers, had already been spreading around the world before the COVID-19 hit the globe. Such international political environment is expected to become more pervasive through the pandemic crisis. Many countries are fighting against the virus with entry ban and lockdown measures. They also feel that they need to bring the manufacturing facilities of vital medical supplies back home, and this could lead to the scale-down of the global value chain. In addition, the national crisis that the virus created has contributed to making a nation state more important as a political actor and justified the need for a big government to protect public health and national security. Last but not least, as the world needs to cope with political and economic impacts that the pandemic crisis brought about within their borders, respectively, each country is going to focus its resources and efforts on dealing with domestic issues in the coming years.

These situations show that the features of the international political environment became precarious and sharper through the pandemic crisis and will expand their influence for some time. Such characteristics in international relations are not going to change abruptly even if Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is elected in this November. This is because neither the U.S. Congress nor the American public wants their country to retake the role of the world’s policeman. Moreover, the fact that no other country has the ability to fill the power vacuum created by the U.S. indicates that there is no reason why the global power should turn away from the America First approach. Accordingly, the argument that the Trump administration’s “America First”foreign policy is an exception in the light of orientations in U.S. foreign policy since Word War II and the U.S. would retake the leadership position of the liberal international order after the Trump administration would remain just as a wishful thinking.

The features of the current international political environment suggest that the U.S.-China relations would become more competitive in the coming years. In Washington, there is the bipartisan consensus that the U.S. ought to maintain its superiority over China. And President Trump will shore up efforts at “China bashing”for emphasizing his America first trade policy in order to galvanize support for his reelection. In addition, President Trump’s China bashing campaign strategy will be accelerated by his intention to hold China accountable for the global spread of the coronavirus. Similarly, Joe Biden is also expected to be aggressive on China in order not to repeat mistakes that Hillary Clinton made in 2016. One of the main factors on her defeat is that she did not secure as much blue collar workers’support as her predecessors used to receive in the three Rust Belt states. So it is expected that Biden is trying to get their support back through protectionist trade policies. It means that China bashing will be at the center of the 2020 presidential campaign.

In response to Washington’s mounting pressure, it is anticipated that Beijing will respond aggressively. If Beijing fails to push back against the accusations of its mishandling of the COVID-19 outbreak, it could undermine President Xi’s political authority, and public opinion in China could get worse. Moreover, a growing number of countries would join the criticism of the Chinese government and it would be extremely difficult for China to maintain its global influence in a post-COVID-19 world.


Ⅲ. Implications

As examined above, it is expected that the U.S.-China rivalry would get more intensified in the coming years. The outlook poses serious challenges to South Korean diplomacy that needs to maintain the strategic balance between the great powers. How can South Korean diplomacy find a breakthrough facing such challenges?

South Korea’s effective, successful handling of the coronavirus outbreak has provided a strong momentum for the middle power to pursue a “principled diplomacy,”aimed at advancing its national interests based on the principles of “openness, transparency, and inclusiveness.”

The South Korean government has expressed its intention to cooperate with core regional players based on the diplomatic principles.

Specifically, South Korea welcomed the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision of the U.S. and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And it is making consistent efforts to figure out how its New Southern Policy could move forward with them.

The international community has witnessed how successfully South Korea has been coping with the pandemic crisis based on the principles of “openness, transparency, and democratic procedures.”It means that people around the world obtained a positive perception that South Korea is trustworthy and reliable. And it could provide South Korea with a strong momentum when it pursues a middle power diplomacy based on the universal, reliable, and trustworthy principles.

COVID-19, whose first case was reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan, was spread to South Korea. Faced with a sharp spike in confirmed COVID-19 cases, South Korean authorities formulated and implemented a systematic model designed to combat the virus through fast diagnosis, contact tracking, and strict isolation measures. Combined with the devoted efforts of medical staff and health officials and Korean people’s mature civic awareness and cooperation, situations have been brought under control in a rapid and timely manner. As s result, the Korean model of containing the virus without entry ban and lockdown measures has drawn international attention, and many countries came to perceive that the model was built on the universally acceptable principles of openness, transparency, and democratic procedures and South Korean medical supplies are reliable and trustworthy. The global spread of the principles of the Korean model has offered a strong momentum for South Korea to push forward middle power diplomacy with the universal principles. 
 
Both the U.S. and China showed blatantly their true colors in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Right after Washington expressed its gratitude to Seoul for offering coronavirus diagnostic kits, President Trump rejected the burden sharing deal agreed by both sides of the negotiation delegations just because it was too small to accept.  Similarly, with the rapid spread of the virus within China’s borders earlier this year, many countries banned the Chinese and visitors from China from entering their borders, but South Korea made consistent efforts to open its borders to the Chinese people as much as possible. The Chinese government expressed its gratitude to the South Korean government for the diplomatic decision. As South Korea suffered from the  spread of the virus, however, China effectively blocked all Koreans from entering their borders blatantly exclaiming “quarantine over diplomacy.”

South Korea’s middle power diplomacy with the universal principles will support its strategic moves under the situation where the U.S. and China put pressure on South Korea to take  sides between them. This is because such universal principles would provide South Korea with a superior cause and allow middle powers to justify  strategic decisions between the great powers. When South Korea makes consistent efforts at pursuing its principled diplomacy, Korean middle power diplomacy will continue to be well received by the international community and expand its global influence.

  #Trump #USChinaRelations #China #COVID19 #US
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