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IFANS Focus
Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Short-term Remedy for the U.S. and Europe’s Security Aftermath
JUN Hae-Won
Upload Date
2025-01-03
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1. Trump and Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks
2. Trump and America’s Global Alliance Network
As the second Trump administration is set to launch, European nations share the same question: Is Donald Trump’s reelection a new crisis for Europe? Amid the current situation where Europe’s security reliance on the U.S. is higher than ever since the beginning of the post-Cold War era due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the impact of Trump’s return on U.S.-Europe relations could be far greater than that of his first term.
During Trump’s first term, his administration’s policies toward Europe were regarded as one of the major security crises of the 2010s for the region, posing significant threats to key security actors in Europe, including the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and individual European nations. In particular, Trump’s positions—such as questioning the necessity of NATO and suggesting the conditional application of Article 5, which mandates collective defense; attempts to reduce U.S. troops in Germany; and showing a sense of camaraderie toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had forcibly annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014—undermined the very foundations of transatlantic relations. The damage to the credibility of the transatlantic alliance during Trump’s first presidency was so profound that the restoration of the alliance was a focal point of the successor Biden's European policy.
Ultimately, the security policy of the second Trump administration toward Europe would likely focus on two major areas. The first is addressing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which by the time of Trump’s inauguration would have been underway for nearly three years. The second is determining whether to maintain, reduce, or expand the level of U.S. contribution to European security through NATO as seen during his first term.
These two areas are inextricably linked for the following reasons. First, although NATO and its member states are not direct parties to the Ukraine war and have avoided direct involvement since the outbreak of the war, the U.S.-led military aid provided by NATO member states has been the primary force enabling Ukraine to defend or reclaim its territory so far. Second, regardless of how the war concludes or pauses, an external guarantee for Ukraine’s security will be necessary, which is directly tied to the possibility of Ukraine’s NATO membership. Third, the trajectory of the Ukraine war will have a decisive impact on the overall security landscape of Europe. That is, the level and nature of Russia’s threat to Europe, the military capabilities required for Europe’s defense, and the effectiveness of deterrence based on the credibility of the transatlantic alliance will be substantially shaped by how the Ukraine war is played out.
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#NATO
#Trump
#Ukraine
#Russia
#PeaceTalks
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IFANS FOCUS 2024-16E(전혜원).pdf
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