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IFANS PERSPECTIVES The Direction of the 2nd Trump Administration’s Taiwan Policy and Implications of U.S.-China Relations KIM Han-kwon Upload Date 2025-05-08 Hits 6430
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1. Introduction   
2. Analysis of the Direction of Taiwan Policy in the 2ndTrump Era
3. The Direction of China’s Response
4. Implications and Suggestions for South Korea


1.Introduction   

The second Trump administration, launched in January 2025, is forecast to ramp up strategic pressure on China. Besides President Donald J. Trump’s measure to impose tariffs, the United States government has expanded demands from its allies and partners, which began with his intent to acquire Greenland, the vision of Gaza, and efforts to negotiate a quick end to the war in Ukraine. 
In the meantime, Beijing’s Xi Jinping leadership has reiterated its unwavering determination to pursue China’s reunification, for which the use of force may occur without reservation. Accordingly, independent-oriented Lai Ching-te’s assumption of the presidency in May 2024 has further intensified tensions in cross-Strait relations.
Considering the relationship with China, the U.S. has maintained a ‘strategic ambiguity’ approach in dealings with Taiwan, which resided with the first Trump administration. Entering the Biden administration, however, Washington seemed to have a bit clearer intent to intervene in the event of military actions by Beijing. Meanwhile, President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. had a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) held in Tokyo on May 23, 2022. When asked about the possibility of military engagement to safeguard Taiwan at the joint press conference following their meeting, President Biden affirmed, “Yes,” and he added, “That’s the commitment we made.” Trevor Hunnicutt and Sakura Murakami. “Biden says he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan against China” Reuters (May 24, 2022).  
Against this backdrop, this article aims to analyze major issues and the direction of Taiwan policy that emerged with the beginning of the 2nd Trump administration. Though the Taiwan policy pursued by the administration has not been officially proclaimed, the article seeks to prospect what further policies the 2nd Trump administration will adopt regarding Taiwan based on the following: (1) President Trump’s statements about Taiwan during the 2024 presidential campaign, (2) Taiwan-related documents from the U.S. Department of State compiled since the outset of Trump 2.0, (3) information gathered from the U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Meeting convened on February 7, 2025, and (4) the contents pertaining to Taiwan from the ROK-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Foreign Ministers’ meeting on February 15, 2025, which was held during the Munich Security Conference. 
The article also seeks to explore how the direction of Trump’s Taiwan policy could influence the outlook for U.S.-China strategic competition as well as ROK-PRC relations. In a manner akin to U.S.-Ukraine relations, Taiwan engages in an asymmetric partnership with the U.S. Particularly, China’s firm policy on reunification, paired with its ongoing pressure, substantially heightens Taipei’s dependence on Washington. This situation also casts some implications for South Korea, which has recently increased its reliance on the U.S. when it comes to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, along with other key issues in terms of trade, political, and diplomatic fields.

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