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IFANS PERSPECTIVES The North Korea-Russia Alliance and Korea’s Policy 최우선 국제안보통일연구부 교수 발행일 2024-12-31 조회수 27521
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1. Introduction
2. Russia’s Foreign Policy and North Korea’s Strategic Value
3. The Causes and Nature of the Alliance Formation
4. Russia’s Support for North Korea: Options
5. China’s Anticipated Stance 
6. Policies for Korea

1. Introduction

This paper aims to assess the nature and risks of the recently forged military alliance between North Korea and Russia and to present policies for Korea. During his visit to North Korea on June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the "Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership," a document that officially revives their military alliance and pledges comprehensive bilateral cooperation. Alliance is defined as formal or informal security cooperation among states based on the security commitment of at least one state against a specific state or states. The North Korea-Russia treaty is an alliance, as it declares: “If one party faces armed aggression leading to a state of war, the other party shall, without delay, provide military and other assistance through all available means, as prescribed by Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation.”


The formation of the North Korea-Russia alliance poses serious challenges to Korea. As North Korea is accelerating nuclear development and its pursuit of second-strike capabilities against the United States, curbing Russia’s military and technological assistance to Pyongyang is of utmost importance. Simultaneously, managing the relationship with Russia - now turning to overt hostility toward Korea - has become a more difficult diplomatic task. Furthermore, Korea faces the challenge of safeguarding its national security interests while preventing U.S.-China power competition and the formation of the North Korea-Russia alliance from reinforcing the move toward Cold War-type division.
In light of these challenges, this paper explores three critical questions: 

■ What is the nature and level of the military alliance between North Korea and Russia?
■ What role will Russia play in supporting North Korea under differing conditions, such 
 as peacetime, crises, and wartime?
■ What policies should South Korea pursue in response to the North Korea-Russia alliance?

The paper will first evaluate North Korea’s strategic value for Russia. Second, it will analyze the causes of the North Korea-Russia alliance and assess the nature and level of the alliance. Third, it will explore Russia's options for supporting North Korea under varying circumstances. Fourth, it will predict the attitude of China that has strong influence on North Korea and Russia. Lastly, it will propose policies for Korea.


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IFANS PERSPECTIVES 2024-14E(최우선).pdf
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